1. Future cash flows must be discounted to the present
Future cash flows—whether assumed, expected, or projected—must be discounted back to today at an appropriate discount rate. This is the time value of money, and it is THE FUNDAMENTAL concept in corporate finance. Everything else follows from it.
2. Risk must be priced
Risk and return are inevitably linked. Higher expected returns require that greater risk be assumed. If risk is ignored, understated, or mispriced, value is almost certainly being overstated.
3. Firm value comes from future cash flows discounted at a cost of capital
The value of a firm comes from discounting expected (that is, hoped-for) future cash flows at an appropriate discount rate that reflects risk. This discount rate is the firm's cost of capital, or hurdle rate. Projections are just (hopefully) educated guesses. The future is fundamentally unknowable.
4. Diversification is a very rare free lunch
Diversification can reduce risk while maintaining expected return. This Nobel prize winning insight is the foundation of modern portfolio theory.
5. Growth does not create value
Growth creates value only when the return on invested capital exceeds the cost of capital. The cost of capital represents what investors require to provide capital to the firm. Growth for its own sake in earnings, revenue or scale—organic or acquired—often destroys value while appearing successful on the surface.
6. Cash flow matters more than accounting earnings
Accounting is an agreed set of principles, not economic reality. Earnings are not cash flow; balance sheets are historical; the decision to capitalize or expense is often arbitrary. Always follow the cash.
7. Leverage magnifies outcomes
Debt magnifies both positive and negative outcomes. Properly used, leverage can increase returns to equity. Improperly used, it accelerates failure. No firm has ever declared bankruptcy because it failed to pay a dividend.
8. Liquidity is a strategic asset
Liquidity buys time, flexibility, and negotiating power. It allows firms to survive downturns, meet obligations under stress, and act opportunistically when others cannot.
9. Options and optionality have value
Options—whether embedded in financial instruments or in strategic business decisions—can be valuable. Scary looking math and the presence of Greek letters does not make this idea inscrutable.
10. Incentives shape behavior
Incentives shape both individual and corporate behavior. Managers, traders, bankers, and salespeople respond to incentives in predictable ways. Misaligned incentives explain many corporate failures more reliably than bad strategy or bad luck.